USA and COVID-19
I understand that there is an election and that this pandemic has become, in some senses, more political than medical. That being said, we could be a little more realistic.
Most of the evidence says that the USA has done neither remarkably badly nor remarkably well in the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. If we must compare ourselves with other countries, we should compare ourselves with non-autocratic countries with a reasonably well-developed economy (I eliminated countries with less than $10,000 per capita GDP). We should also eliminate very small countries (e.g. Andorra) simply because statistics work best with larger numbers. This leaves me with 53 countries. I should note that all numbers are from Wikipedia as of 19 October 2020.
When I do this, the USA ranks 4th (67.14) in deaths per 100,000 population and 16th (2.7%) in case fatality rate. Just for comparison, I am presently in Belgium, it ranks 1st (91.17) in deaths per 100,000 population and 5h (4.7%) in case fatality rate.
In all cases, you cannot take these statistics as 100% reliable. In the case of Belgium, it is noted for having very good (honest and complete) numbers on fatalities, but it mainly tests people with symptoms, thus it misses most of the cases without symptoms and this especially distorts the fatality rate. I should add that Belgium has an exceptionally good, socialized medical system (see my previous article Living in a Socialist Country) and thus their statistics capture nearly all the cases seen by doctors.
As a general observation, I have observed over the last months that countries which have been highlighted in the news for their success in controlling COVID-19 have often had flareups soon afterwards. The three countries with the best success (so far) have been island nations who reacted early to control both visitors and their own people. Even Germany which has been relatively successful until now, now has rapidly increasing cases and been forced to implement more drastic measures.
For the record, here are the numbers:
| Country | Deaths per 100,000 population | Country | Case fatality rate | |
| Belgium | 91.17 | Italy | 8.80% | |
| Chile | 72.8 | United Kingdom | 6.00% | |
| Spain | 72.29 | Sweden | 5.70% | |
| United States | 67.14 | Canada | 5.10% | |
| United Kingdom | 65.78 | Belgium | 4.70% | |
| Panama | 61.39 | Ireland | 4.10% | |
| Italy | 60.47 | France | 3.80% | |
| Sweden | 58.12 | Spain | 3.60% | |
| France | 49.75 | Romania | 3.40% | |
| Netherlands | 39.53 | Australia | 3.30% | |
| Ireland | 37.81 | Barbados | 3.30% | |
| Romania | 28.76 | Switzerland | 3.10% | |
| Bahamas | 28.26 | Netherlands | 2.90% | |
| Canada | 26.23 | Chile | 2.80% | |
| Switzerland | 24.76 | Finland | 2.80% | |
| Israel | 23.62 | United States | 2.70% | |
| Costa Rica | 22.68 | Hungary | 2.50% | |
| Oman | 21.97 | Portugal | 2.30% | |
| Luxembourg | 21.06 | Germany | 2.30% | |
| Portugal | 20.59 | Poland | 2.30% | |
| Bahrain | 18.29 | Panama | 2.10% | |
| Kuwait | 16.34 | Bahamas | 2.10% | |
| Saudi Arabia | 15.16 | Denmark | 2.00% | |
| Germany | 12.1 | Greece | 2.00% | |
| Denmark | 11.64 | Brunei | 2.00% | |
| Czechia | 11.03 | Slovenia | 1.80% | |
| Hungary | 10.47 | Trinidad and Tobago | 1.80% | |
| Austria | 9.86 | Japan | 1.80% | |
| Malta | 9.1 | Korea, South | 1.80% | |
| Poland | 8.47 | Norway | 1.70% | |
| Slovenia | 8.46 | Slovenia | 5.15 | |
| Croatia | 8.17 | Croatia | 3.91 | |
| Qatar | 7.91 | Qatar | 15.16 | |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 6.69 | Trinidad and Tobago | 9.86 | |
| Finland | 6.34 | Finland | 8.17 | |
| Norway | 5.21 | Norway | 21.06 | |
| Estonia | 5.15 | Estonia | 2.13 | |
| United Arab Emirates | 4.67 | United Arab Emirates | 0.51 | |
| Greece | 4.37 | Greece | 0.03 | |
| Lithuania | 3.91 | Lithuania | 9.1 | |
| Australia | 3.62 | Australia | 2.1 | |
| Iceland | 2.83 | Iceland | 21.97 | |
| Barbados | 2.44 | Barbados | 0.53 | |
| Latvia | 2.13 | Latvia | 11.03 | |
| Cyprus | 2.1 | Cyprus | 2.58 | |
| Japan | 1.3 | Japan | 23.62 | |
| Slovakia | 1.21 | Slovakia | 16.34 | |
| Korea, South | 0.85 | Korea, South | 18.29 | |
| Brunei | 0.7 | Brunei | 4.67 | |
| Malaysia | 0.53 | Malaysia | 2.83 | |
| New Zealand | 0.51 | New Zealand | 1.21 | |
| Singapore | 0.5 | Singapore | 7.91 | |
| Taiwan* | 0.03 | Taiwan* | 0.5 |
3 thoughts on “USA and COVID-19”
It’s really nice to have all the numbers right in one spot! Thank you for doing all the research! I do know that the US is testing a whole bunch more than they used to So it doesn’t surprise me that the numbers have been going up. In my line of work we’ve seen the ebb and flow of case surges recently… It just seems so odd that some people get hit so hard why others have no issues whatsoever with the coronavirus.
Thanks for the compendium. I was shocked a week or so ago to read that Belgium had the worst numbers of any European nation except the Czech Republic. Now they are #1!
My only quibble with your piece is the statement that the USA has done “neither remarkably well nor remarkably badly.” I would say that being fourth among 53 developed nations is doing very, very badly. We are right next to the UK, where Boris Johnson’s chaotic approach to the pandemic in truly Trumpian.
Italy, Belgium, Spain and the USA (especially New York City) had the misfortune of being among the first places hit by the pandemic. They all had the great disadvantage of not knowing exactly how the virus is spread nor how infectious it is nor how to best contain it (it can be argued that while we know a great deal more, we still do not know enough). None of these places had enough medical capacity (beds, equipment, personnel) on hand and sometimes made decisions which turned out to be disastrous (witness the New York decision to relieve the pressure on the hospitals by returning less ill patients to retirement homes). These (and probably other factors) caused the high death rates which still weight the statistics.
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